Will the “Mrs. President’s shouting” lead to Ruhan’s crisis: Is there any card outside Zhang Dayi?
When the protagonist of a rumor is directly related to the lifeblood of a listed company, the influence of the rumor is not only in the rumor itself.At noon on April 17, the user whose Weibo ID was “Hua Hua Dong Hua Hua” publicly named Zhang Dayi, saying, “This is the last warning, and I’ll be welcome to provoke my husband again.”Subsequently, some netizens pointed out that the husband of “Hua Hua Dong Hua Hua” was suspected to be Jiang Fan, president of Taobao and president of Tmall.Who is Zhang Dayi?The first generation of Internet celebrities, US listed companies such as CMO.Sauna and Yewang verified the truth, impact and stop loss of the matter, such as CEO Feng Min, and stopped responding.In response, Ali officials responded that the company will formally investigate the Internet rumors.”No matter who they are, they must abide by the company’s business guidelines without exception.”” After the call was opened that night, if it included a sharp fall, the maximum decline was 10%, and the closing price rose back to the above American depositary receipt.$ 83.But at the same time, the market value of more than 1 billion US dollars when it went public in April last year has fallen by more than 60%.On April 20, US stocks opened, and Redsports e-commerce company Ruhan (NASDAQ: RUHN) opened to report this American depositary receipt.It has dropped by more than 7% at US $ 56. As of press time, it has fallen by more than 12%, and it has fallen to as low as the above American Depositary Receipt 3.USD 31.About its market value ratio of more than 1 billion US dollars when it went public on April 8 last year has fallen by nearly 70%.Although the rumors cannot be confirmed, Ruhan’s predicament as a net celebrity is distorted.Zhang Dayi’s single IP contributes more than half of GMV; the independent brand model is challenged; in the case of increasing revenue and not increasing profits, large sales expenses are used for advertising and various markets, brand promotion expenditures.On live broadcast platforms such as Douyin, Zhang Dayi’s traffic has been overtaken by Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi.Some high-level people believe that long-term cooperation with Alibaba’s companies may lead Ruhan to put too much attention on the Alibaba’s position and promptly cut into new platforms such as Douyin in a timely manner.If the brand of Zhang Dayi is damaged, what does it mean for Ruhan?One year after its listing, it still highly relies on Zhang Dayi’s Ruhan, does it have other back lanes or hole cards?Zhang Dayi, who can’t fall, soon broke out, and Zhang Dayi, who is the party, quickly cut through the “all misunderstandings” and scandals.Zhang Dayi at the moment is not alone, she is a moneymaker that Ruhan cannot fall.As shown in the financial report of Hanhan, the GMV contribution ratio of the three head KOLs within Zhang Dayi was 60 in FY2017 to FY2019 respectively.7%, 65.2%, 54%, has reached 61 so far.43%.The proportion of income contribution from Zhang Dayi’s personal IP has increased year by year: FY2017 50.8%, 52 in fiscal year 2018.4%, 53 in fiscal year 2019.5%.On the night of the shouting event, Ruhan, which is listed in the US, has been plunging since the opening, with a maximum drop of 10%.Some top people told reporters that Zhang Dayi’s celebrity IP is a product of chance + possibility and is difficult to recreate. “Possibility is to be a must-have condition for becoming a celebrity,” a staff member who once worked at MCN told Sauna, Yewang, just like Li Jiaqi’s success was because L’Oreal Group wanted to select 200 makeup artists to become celebrities, and he caughtThis opportunity.For Zhang Dayi, stepping on the entrance is also the key to her success.Eleven years ago, in 2009, Zhang Dayi was still a “Ruili girl”, and she often appeared as a model in the clothing pages of fashion magazines such as “Ruili” and “Xinwei”.In 2011, Ruhan CEO Feng Min and his wife founded Taobao women’s clothing brand “Labelin”, while Zhang Dayi was a brand model.In 2014, Feng Min and Zhang Dayi co-founded the Taobao store of “My Joyful Wardrobe”. Zhang Dayi was responsible for shaping the online store style and online celebrity brand, while Feng Min was responsible for operations, supply management and logistics.Ruhan was born.In the following year, Ruhan became the sales champion of Taobao’s clothing category. Zhang Dayi also went from fashion buyer to advanced version production according to fan demand, but at that time, there was no mature Ali big data. Zhang Dayi’s concern wasWeibo fans.Also in this year, Weibo, who wants to get through third- and fourth-tier cities, decided to support small and medium-sized bloggers in vertical fields such as fashion, beauty, and tourism, and established an e-commerce business unit to build a micro-e-commerce system with Alibaba.Although Zhang Dayi, who had 250,000 fans at the time, was just a “small V”, he also took this ride, and shared the personal aesthetic and lifestyle to create the “big aunt” personality, and the fans diverted from Weibo approachedTaobao store has created such a single store over 100 million.His personal IP is unmanageable.In just four years, Zhang Dayi’s Weibo followers have skyrocketed from 300,000 to 10.77 million; in the “Double Eleven” in 2017, Zhang Dayi’s online store broke through.RMB 7 trillion; In 2018, the “Double Eleven” Zhang Dayi store broke the record in 28 minutes; in 2019, Ruhan welcomed the Nasdaq listing.After the listing, Ruhan still regards Zhang Dayi as the biggest “money shaker”.A former Ali Taobao person interviewed by a reporter believes that citing Yu Weiya, Li Jiaqi, etc., Ruhan’s advantage is that it can continue to launch a large number of young and beautiful or in line with the downward adjustment of a large number of anchors for the platform to use.This is more conducive to the platform for harvesting. Too much feed from the head anchor is not a good thing for the platform. Some game anchors often have a signing fee of tens of millions.But the other side of the coin is that although hundreds of anchors have been signed, Ruhan still relies heavily on head anchors, especially Zhang Dayi’s personal IP.A person in charge of the MCN agency from Fujian told the sauna, Yewang, Ruhan relied too much on Zhang Dayi’s personal IP, but “Zhang Dayi is first and foremost, she will get married and have children, there will be various news, theseIt affects the stability of her performance and the stability of the company.”Backing on the big tree and missing more scenery?Cheng Ye Taobao “lost” also Taobao according to Ruhan prospectus, CEO Feng Min holds 27 shares.51%, Zhang Dayi holds 15%, and Alibaba holds 8 through Taobao China Holdings.56%.After the IPO, Zhang Dayi held Ruhan 13.2% of the shares and own 2.With 7% of voting rights, Alibaba holds 7 shares through Taobao China Holdings.5%.A former Alitao employee told the sauna that Yewang, Ruhan is equivalent to a pipeline of incubating anchors invested by Ali, which grew up in the wave of content e-commerce, which is equivalent to that everyone is engaged in anchors and onlineRed, Ali briefly raised Ruhan from the capital.2016 is known as the “Year of Cyber Red”.In the documentary “Hong Kong”, Zhang Dayi shouted “2016 is definitely the era of Zhang Dayi” to the camera. This year she was the epitome of the rise of the Internet celebrity economy. She created a Taobao store through a 4-hour live broadcast of Taobao20 million of this kind.At that time, Taobao Live was only 100 days old.This year, Alibaba became the fourth-largest shareholder with a share capital of 300 million yuan.Ruhan had already discussed the investor, but ultimately chose Alibaba because of the strategic significance of the industry chain ecology.Alibaba’s shareholding is bound to reach 31, according to its estimate.300 million yuan.In August 2019, Ruhan called Alibaba as an important strategic stakeholder and long-term key business partner at the first quarter fiscal year 2020 earnings conference call, and stated that Alibaba provides e-commerce infrastructure and integrityTechnical tools to support Ruhan ‘s Internet KOL ecosystem, and Ruhan continues to explore cooperation opportunities with Alibaba in new businesses, especially in live broadcast assets, live broadcast supply chain platform model business, and Taobao KOL live broadcast product marketingbusiness.Not only that, Weibo and Bilibili invested by Alibaba are also shareholders of Han. Ruhan hopes to further expand their business in the KOL live broadcast field with these two companies.On the main position Taobao live broadcast, Ruhan’s layout was slightly slow.Starting in the second half of 2018, Ruhan began to try e-commerce live streaming, but among the more than 700 organizations on Taobao live e-commerce, Ruhan’s ranking is not high.Live eye data shows that the number of all live broadcast stores on Taobao increased from 28,866 on February 21, 2020 to 74,884 on March 6, and the number of broadcasts on a single day increased from 30,633 to 46,559.Not to mention how difficult it is to get popular from more than 70,000 anchors, Taobao live broadcast is more sales and monetization, and it is not conducive to KOL to circle.In addition, Ruhan’s financial report showed a quarterly change, and this quarterly change coincided with Tmall, Taobao and “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve”.The financial report shows that in the four quarters of fiscal year 2018, Ruhan’s net profit was -1941 million yuan and -1 respectively.18 trillion, 50.74 million yuan and -6.38 trillion; in the four quarters of fiscal 2019, Ruhan ‘s net profit was -4.9.3 billion, -1.8.3 billion, 100 million, and -29.4 million yuan; In the first three quarters of fiscal year 2020, Ruhan ‘s net profits were -26.7 million yuan, -50.1 million yuan, and 10.7 million yuan, respectively.Some analysts also speculate that long-term cooperative relations with Alibaba companies may also have some exclusive clauses, resulting in a relatively single platform for Ruhan to choose.Under the KOL myth, where does the “increasing income not increasing profit” puzzle cost?In April 2019, it became the first time for domestic celebrity e-commerce companies to go to the IPO in the United States.At that time, Ruhan was like those KOL young and beautiful skin, but no one can stay young forever.The continuous breakthrough is Ruhan’s fatal injury.Data for fiscal year 2017, fiscal year 2018, and fiscal year 2019 show that Ruhan’s net replacements were 5,538, respectively.370,000 yuan, 1.04 billion and 7324.620,000 yuan.Ruhan, who failed to achieve profitability, lacked endogenous growth momentum. After listing, asking the capital market to maintain the company ‘s operations seems to be Ruhan ‘s best choice.The operation model of “money” is more of a wait-and-see attitude.In Nasdaq, which is more concerned about the growth of the company, the growth of operating income affects the integration and overall forecast of listed companies. Ruhan ‘s revenue still maintains a growth trend.Han’s operating income was 5.7.7 billion, 9.4.8 billion and 10.9.3 billion yuan, an average of 63.97%, 15.39% and 15.At 30%, the increase in revenue clearly reflects the uncertainty of growth, and Ruhan’s must also be from the beginning of the listing7.$ 85 / share fell to the latest closing price of 3.83 US dollars / share, the total market value is cut, only 3.22 billion US dollars.Without increasing income, where did Ruhan spend his money?As of December 31, 2019, the number of Ruhan contracted KOLs increased from 146 on September 30, 2019 to 159, and ended December 31, 2018, 113; KOL on the platform head, shoulders and waistThe total increased from 31 on September 30, 2019 to 37, while the number ended on December 31, 2018 was 18.The development of each KOL requires both timely and favorable conditions, and it also requires a lot of money as support. In FY2017, FY2018, and FY2019, Ruhan ‘s sales expenses were 9781, respectively.30,000 yuan, 1.4.6 billion and 2.0.6 billion.Selling expenses are mainly expenses incurred by Ruhan on various e-commerce platforms and social media for advertising, marketing and brand promotion activities.Meet the “Li Jiaqis” on the narrow road and meet the “Zhang Dayi” pattern ceiling during the double eleven in 2019.3 hours) gradually increase by 6.600 million; Anchor Weiya pre-sales a single live broadcast that day (6.6 hours) 6.600 million; Zhang Dayi’s live broadcast duration of 7 hours, 13 minutes and 31 seconds exceeded 60 million yuan.Statistics show that Zhang Dayi has more than 10 million Weibo followers, but his Weibo influence data is lower than Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya.On the vibrato, Zhang Dayi’s fans are only 27.40,000, while Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya’s Douyin fans were 42.53 million and 5.32 million, respectively.In fact, Zhang Dayi, Li Jiaqi, Wei Ya, etc. represent different modes of net red belt goods.At present, there are three more common models of online red belt goods: most short video creators adopt the e-commerce model of “Taobaoke” (both anchors and sub-commissions), that is, to help merchants sell products and earn a certain commission, Li Jiaqi, Weiya, etc. are among the leaders; the second is self-built e-commerce, or open their own shop on Taobao, take the goods from suppliers to earn the difference, choose “one” “daily cooking” is self-built e-commerce,There are also some fast-handed old irons with a source of supply, which are similar; another is to create your own brand, turn it into an e-commerce, and open a store to sell your own goods, like Zhang Dayi, Shirley and so on.”The defects of these two models are gradually expanding, but the profitability does not necessarily increase continuously. The income of the Taobao guest model is relatively fixed, and the red e-commerce does not necessarily make money.”The founder of an MCN organization that is planning to expand its e-commerce business on Douyin.”The most important thing is that the red e-commerce needs to pay higher promotion costs, and at the same time bear the costs of the supply chain, channels and customer service.The founder of the MCN organization that is planning to expand its e-commerce business on Douyin said that there is another level. For example, the self-cultivated red man, after the ability to bring goods is stabilized, suddenly “single flight”, causing him huge losses,”I didn’t know who could be red at the beginning. I didn’t sign the whole contract. Once I was flying alone, I was very hurt,” he told the sauna, Yewang.The above-mentioned people who worked in the Tao department raised another challenge, such as the S-level short video or the cost of live-streaming the reds to bring goods to the brand, and even can buy resource bits directly on “Ali mother”. The rest of the conversionThe rate is even higher, so it is worth considering whether the model of the reds bring goods.Is it too late to adjust?Almost every generation of internet celebrities’ successful review will point to an answer that cannot be copied.The aforementioned staff of the former MCN agency told the sauna, Yewang, “There is no standard upgrade guide, but it is standing there appropriately.”In his view, different platforms will produce the celebrities needed by different platforms. Zhang Dayi’s photo text is suitable for Weibo, and the dynamic videos of Wei Ya and Li Jiaqi are suitable for Taobao live broadcast.When developing countries are seeking capital market operations, Ruhan still magnifies the influencer model. Zhang Dayi’s photo covers half of the roadshow slide show’s first page, which also reflects her contribution to Ruhan. Her income exceedsHalf of Ruhan’s total revenue.That being the case, Zhang Dayi even became Ruhan’s main contributor to net profit. The former joint venture with Ruhan Holdings’ Dayi e-commerce (Ruhan Holdings holds 51%) replaced Ruhan, but achieved a net scale.profit.After 2016, Internet celebrities entered the era of live broadcasting.Zhang Dayi also began to adjust, but not once her speed was not so fast.In May, Wei Ya started to broadcast live on Taobao, and Zhang Dayi, who had accumulated 10.73 million Weibo fans at the time, had only 1.13 million fans at that time. Wei Ya was naturally a professional anchor, and the foundation of the fans was established in the live broadcast room.On October 10, 2017, $ 70 million, Wei Ya began to become a topic of discussion, and also replaced the basis for becoming the number one anchor of Taobao in the future.Zhang Dayi’s live-stream viewership lags far behind Weiya. She once told reporters that live streaming three or four hours a day is “a bit tiring”.Zhang Dayi did not give up the status of “Internet celebrity”, so he switched to live broadcasting.But the problem is that what Zhang Dayi has to do is to introduce her fans accumulated on Weibo to Taobao stores and introduce them to Taobao live broadcast, which will break the usual user habits and increase costs. Fans of “Weiya”It grows itself in the live broadcast room, naturally condensing suitable users.In 2018, Zhang Dayi also began to transform. As a founder, she brought a brand new BIGEVE BEAUTY. She continued to try labels such as “new” and “domestic brand” in Alibaba ‘s ecology, cut into beauty, and decided to changeBeauty line grows on Tmall platform.Unlike Taobao, Tmall is more prominent in brand tonality.An Alibaba insider told the sauna that Yewang, beauty and fast-moving are the biggest business segments of Tmall.In fact, Alibaba will launch more marketing support for this market every year.A few days ago, at the Tmall Golden Makeup Awards presentation ceremony, Zhang Dayi and her BIGEVE BEAUTY won the “Trend Big Coffee Award”.If the meaning of CFO Wang Jinbo told analysts that the company will sign 5 to 10 new KOLs every month, and the gross profit margin of the head KOL and the KOL will be the same, the proportion of KOL revenue will gradually decrease.This means that Ruhan urgently needs another Zhang Dayi.It is not the “Internet celebrity” itself that drives the Internet celebrity economy, but the Internet demographic dividend. Users have mastered the flow of traffic.Behind the change is an exhaustion of application traffic dividends.According to data from iResearch, a third-party organization, in 2018, the growth rate of short video and real-time traffic platforms has suddenly changed, and the competition in the entire market has begun to accumulate. If 2018 includes 7235 million US dollars, the marketing costs will be as high as 1.4.6 billion.With the rise of Douyin Live Streaming, byte beating was once again supported by its own traffic. Luo Yonghao live broadcast seems to be a transformation of an old cannon, and from the perspective of traffic behind this, the biggest winner is byte beating.Faced with new platforms and new gameplay, “Weiya” also set up vibrato, anxious to try short video gameplay, becoming their hottest video sticky to attract new fans.There is no hundred-day red flowers, so is the net red.In fact, as early as 2017, Feng Min had admitted that he needed something that Taobao and Weibo could not cover. He had told the media that he was building direct information and supply chain systems to create his own online celebrity e-commerce ecosystem., And this is now Ruhan.Regarding the impact of the above incident on Ruhan, many of the people involved said that if it was just a relationship between men and women, they would not send an internal network message saying that the investigation or the like is, after all, a personal life style of employees, but it involves a certain relationship of interest between businesses.It’s different.”For employees, there will be issues of integrity, and for businesses, if they do come with benefits, Ruhan may not have a better life in the future, losing a big” father “, and other” fathers “are not likely to take over.”One of the seniors told the sauna, Yewang.Sauna, Ye Wang Liang Chen Bai Jinlei Zhang Yanhong Editor Li Weijia Yue Cai Zhou proofreading Li Ming